AMSWA - (recommended to subscribers on 12/10/02 at
$2.56)
On Nov. 18th
American Software,
Inc. reported net income
of $2 million or .09 cents per share (including a 2 cent gain from the
sale of subsidiary Amquest, Inc.). Revenues were $14.8 million,
down
4% from the prior year Quarter. Looking at the chart over the
last
5 years you can see a potential inverted head and shoulders bottoming
pattern.
Even going back to the 1980's you can see the stock bottomed in this
general
area many times. Looking closer at the chart you also see that it
took time for it to rebound each instance. Sometimes 1-2
years.
However the gains in the past have been substantial. Tangible
book
value is approx. $2.75 per share with cash and investments of $2.80 per
share (up over 10% since the end of the last quarter due to an increase
in LGTY shares. AMSWA has a 86% stake in LGTY currently worth $32
million which is included in the value of AMSWA's
investments).
Both companies carry
no debt. AMSWA has
a total market cap of $57.6 million and trades at 1x sales.
Looking at the chart
you will see the stock traded
down to the low $1 range a little over a year ago. However we
don't
think it will return to that level because AMSWA has significantly
improved
it's balance sheet and increased
tangible book value since then.
Update 5/21/03 - Recommend selling at the current
price
of $4.96. This gives you a gain of 96%.
|