WVCM - (recommended to subscribers on 7/27/03 at
$11.09)
On
July 24th Wavecom S.A., a provider of digital wireless modules,
reported
2nd quarter 2003 revenue of 69.9 million euros which was down
approximately
40% from the prior year's 2nd quarter without taking currency
fluctuations
into account. The decline in revenues should be seen in a larger
context
as 2002's 2nd quarter revenues were up well over 100% from 2001's 2nd
quarter
revenues. Net loss for the quarter was 6.5 million euros. Wavecom
expects
3rd quarter revenue to be down sequentially mainly because of high
inventories
in China. However, after speaking with customers in Asia, they remain
positive
that 4th quarter revenue will be higher than the 88 million euros
reported
in the 1st quarter of the year.
In early
December 2002, the company stated
that it's largest customer was canceling orders. There was fear that
Wavecom
would lose the customer altogether and this was a huge problem since
the
customer accounted for 77% of sales. The stock went from $30 to under
$15
overnight and then continued down for another 3 months. Since then
Wavecom
has not lost that customer. Also, they have made a big effort to
broaden
their customer base. Now the largest customer accounts for no more than
33% of sales. The huge risk of potentially losing the majority of
revenue
with 1 customer is gone. Yet the stock price does not reflect this.
Wavecom has cash,
short and long-term investments
worth $167 million or $11 per ADR/share. Book value is $11.33 per
ADR/share.
WVCM trades well below 1x sales and the company carries less than $2
million
of debt. We gave the cash and book value in dollars instead of euros so
you can easily compare them to the stock price. WVCM is an ADR and the
price will follow Wavecom's overseas stock price. You can easily get
the
overseas stock price in euros at Wavecom's web site by clicking on the
link "Investors".
UPDATE
10/15/03 - Recommend closing position.
Sold on 10/16/03 at
$20.30 for a gain of 83%.
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