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Sunday 12/28/03
The Nasdaq and the SP500 were up a bit on the week. The Nasdaq has
support at 1875 on a closing basis. The Nasdaq has resistance at 2000.
The SP500 has some resistance at 1100 but doesn't have much until the early
2002 highs just under 1200. The SP500 put in a new 52-week high last week.
There is support at 1060 on a closing basis. Gold and silver are
trading at mult- year highs. The vix index is hovering at 7 year
lows. |
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Sunday 12/21/03
The Nasdaq was flat and the SP500 was up on the week actually outperforming
the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq has support at 1875 on a closing basis. The
Nasdaq has resistance at 2000. The SP500 has some resistance at 1100 but
doesn't have much until the early 2002 highs just under 1200. The SP500
put in a new 52-week high last week. There is support at 1060
on a closing basis. Gold and silver are trading at mult- year highs.
The vix index is hovering at 7 year lows. |
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Sunday 12/14/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were up slightly on the week. The Nasdaq has
support at 1875 on a closing basis. The nasdaq has resistance at 2000.
The SP500 has resistance at 1075. There is support at 1025
on a closing basis. A big positive was that the DJIA had a weekly close
above 10,000. However there is quite a bit of resistance above 10,200.
Gold and silver are trading at mult- year highs. The vix index is
hovering at 7 year lows. |
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Sunday 11/30/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were up last week however support and resistance levels
are pretty much the same as the prior week. The Nasdaq has short
term support at 1875 on a closing basis. The nasdaq has resistance at 2000.
The SP500 has resistance at 1065. There is support at 1025
on a closing basis. Gold and silver are consolidating at mult- year
highs and are poised for a significant breakout. |
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Sunday 11/23/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were down last week with most of the damage being
done early in the week. The Nasdaq has short term support at 1860
on a closing basis. There is very short term resistance at 1900 on
a closing basis with more resistance at 2000. The SP500 has resistance
at 1065. There is support at 1025 on a closing basis.
Gold and silver are consolidating just below mult- year highs and are poised
to break out. |
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Sunday 11/16/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were down last week with the Nasdaq faring the worst.
The Nasdaq has short term support at 1920 and then 1860 on a closing basis.
There is resistance at 2000. The SP500 has resistance at 1062 though not
that significant. There is very short term support at 1045. There is more
support at 1020. It is interesting that the NYSE closed at new 52
week highs last week. Gold and silver are poised to break out to
multi year highs possibly even this week. |
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Sunday 11/09/03
The Nasdaq was up a little and the SP500 was flat on the week. Small-caps
outperformed. The Nasdaq has short term support at 1925. There is
resistance at 2000. The SP500 has resistance at 1062 though not that significant.
There is very short term support at 1045. There is more suport at 1020.
It will be interesting to see if the Nasdaq can close above 2000 and if
the DJIA can close above 10,000. Gold and silver are still consolidating
just below 52 week highs. For gold multi-year highs are extremely close.
The vix index recently was at more than 5 year lows. |
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Sunday 11/02/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were up nicely on the week. The Nasdaq has support
at 1840. There is resistance at 1950 on a closing basis. The SP500
closed right at resistance at 1050. There is very short term support at
1020. There is more suport at 990. If 990 doesn't hold be prepared
for the SP500 to test 965. We would become bearish on the averages from
a longer term perspective if the SP500 closed below 965 which has held
as support for the last 6 months
Gold and silver are consolidating just below 52 week highs. For gold multi-year
highs are extremely close. |
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Sunday 10/26/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were down on the week. The Nasdaq has support at 1780
after falling through very short term support at 1900. Would like to see
Friday's low of 1840 hold. There is resistance at 1950 on a closing
basis. Closing resistance on the SP500 is at 1050. On a closing basis 990
should hold on the downside. If it doesn't be prepared for the SP500
to test 965. We would become bearish on the averages if the SP500 closed
below 965 which has held as support for the last 5 months
Gold and silver are advancing to 52 weeks highs again. For gold multi-year
highs are extremely close. |
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Sunday 10/19/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were basically flat on the week again so support levels
are the same as they were last week. The Nasdaq has support at 1780.
There is some very short term support at 1900. There is resistance
at 1950 on a closing basis. Closing resistance on the SP500 is at 1050.
On a closing basis 990 should hold on the downside. If it doesn't
be prepared for the SP500 to test 965. We would become bearish on the averages
if the SP500 closed below 965 which has held as support for the last 5
months
Gold and silver are consolidating after their recent minor pullbacks . |
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Sunday 10/12/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were basically flat on the week so support levels
are the same as they were last week. The Nasdaq now has support at 1780.
Resistance is at 1936. Closing resistance on the SP500 is at 1040.
At this point 990 should hold on a closing basis. If it doesn't be prepared
for the SP500 to test 965. We would become bearish on the averages if the
SP500 closed below 965 which has held as support for the last 5 months
Gold and silver gained back much of what was lost the week before . |
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Sunday 10/05/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 climbed last week. The Nasdaq now has clear support
at 1780 which was the low last week. On a closing basis resistance is at
1913. The SP500 bounced off short term support at 990. Resistance is at
1040. At this point 990 should hold on a closing basis. If it doesn't be
prepared for the SP500 to test 965. We would become bearish on the averages
if the SP500 closed below 965 which has held as support for the last 4
months
Gold and silver sold off significantly on Friday but we wouldn't be surprised
to see much of the losses regained next week . |
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Sunday 9/28/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 had significant pullbacks last week. Nasdaq support
is at 1760 on a closing basis with resistance at 1913. The SP500 has
short term support at 990 on a closing basis. Resistance is at 1032.
We would become bearish on the averages if the SP500 closed below 965 which
has held as support for the last 4 months. We have been watching weekly
closing prices on the Vix Index. The Vix Index just broke out of the channel
that it has been in since May on a weekly basis. We would not be surprised
to see a bounce next week after such a sharp selloff. The key will
be what the market does after that.
Gold and silver are consolidating. |
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Sunday 9/14/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were basically flat on the week. Nasdaq short term
support is at 1820 with resistance at 1888. More support is at 1760 on
a closing basis. The SP500 has short term support at 1010 on a closing
basis. Resistance is at 1032. We would become bearish on the
averages if the SP500 closed below 965 which has held as support for the
last 3 months. We are in September now so keep an eye out for a big down
day (DJIA down over 100) for a clue that the trend may be changing. We
are also watching weekly closing prices on the Vix Index. Since May the
Vix has not broken out of it's channel on a weekly basis. It will likely
break to the upside before the SP500 breaks any significant support.
Gold is sitting just under 52 week highs and is poised to breakout. Silver
is at new 52 week highs and looks like it wants to outperform gold. |
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Sunday 9/07/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 moved up a bit last week. Closing support on the Nasdaq
is at 1760 and resistance is at 1880. The SP500 has short term support
at 1010. Resistance is at 1030. We would become bearish on
the averages if the SP500 closed below 965 which has held as support for
the last 3 months. We are in September now so keep an eye out for a big
down day (DJIA down over 100) for a clue that the trend may be changing.
Gold and silver are sitting just under 52 week highs and are poised to
breakout. |
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Sunday 8/31/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 moved up last week. Support on the Nasdaq is at 1735
and resistance is at 1814. The SP500 closed above 1000 on a weekly
basis which we have been watching for, however volume was low so watch
early in the week for follow through buying or a failed breakout. Resistance
is at 1015 which is the SP500's 52 week high. We would become
bearish on the averages if the SP500 closed below 965 which has held as
support for the last 3 months. Watch for an SP500 close below 990( 2 week
closing low) for a clue of a rally failure. Watch the indices very carefully
now as we enter September with extremely low volatility readings.
Gold and silver are sitting just under 52 week highs and are poised to
breakout. |
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Sunday 8/24/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 moved up nicely last week. However Friday's action
was negative from a technical perspective as the indices gapped up significantly
on the open yet closed in the negative. Support on the Nasdaq is at 1640
and resistance is at 1812. 965 has held as support on a closing basis
for the SP500. Watch for a close below 965 for a clue that a bigger down
move is in store. We would become bearish on all the averages if
the SP500 closed below 965. We are watching for a weekly close above 1000
on the SP500 for a hint that the next move will be to the upside. So far
there has been no weekly close above 1000.
Gold and silver were basically flat on the week. |
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Sunday 8/17/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 moved up last week basically taking back what they
had lost during the first week of August. The Nasdaq and SP500's uptrend
lines from March are still broken as the indices appear to be consolidating.
Support on the Nasdaq is at 1640 and resistance is at 1776. 965 has
held as support on a closing basis for the SP500. Watch for a close below
965 for a clue that a bigger down move is in store. We would become
bearish on all the averages if the SP500 closed below 965. We are watching
for a weekly close above 1000 on the SP500 for a hint that the next move
will be to the upside. So far there has been no weekly close above 1000.
Gold was up on the week and silver pulled back a little. |
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Sunday 8/10/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 had significant moves down last week. The Nasdaq
and SP500's uptrend lines from March have been broken. Support on the Nasdaq
at 1675 was broken and now that marks resistance. Next support for the
Nasdaq is at 1600. 965 held as support on a closing basis for the
SP500. Watch for a close below 965 for a clue that a bigger down move is
in store. We would become bearish on the averages if the SP500 closed
below 965.
Gold was up on the week and silver continued to consolidate it's recent
gains. Many gold and silver stocks hit 52 week highs last week. |
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Sunday 8/03/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were down on the week. Support is at 1675 on
the Nasdaq with resistance at 1776. For the SP500 we still look for
support at 965 which had been long term resistance until 9 weeks ago.
I think the index to watch is the SP500. We would become bearish
on the averages if the SP500 closed below 965. Even if the Nasdaq fell
below 1675 as long as the SP500 holds above 965 we would recommend staying
long. However, the SP500 has been unable to achieve a weekly close above
1000 so we are watching 965 very carefully. The recent trading range is
not likely to hold for much longer.
Gold was down a bit on the week but still well within it's recent trading
range and silver spent the week consolidating it's recent gains. Would
not be surprised to see new 52 week highs in silver in the coming week. |
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Sunday 7/27/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were up a bit on the week. The Indices
bounced off support levels early last week. Support is at 1675 on the Nasdaq
with resistance at 1776. For the SP500 we still look for support
at 965 which had been long term resistance until 8 weeks ago. I think
the index to watch is the SP500. We would become bearish on the averages
if the SP500 closed below 965. Even if the Nasdaq fell below 1675 as long
as the SP500 holds above 965 we would recommend staying long. We are keeping
an eye on the still declining Vix Index. The last time the Vix clearly
broke 20 on the downside was in early 2002 shortly before the market racked
up the majority of it's hugh 2002 loss. The time before that was towards
the end of summer 2000, shortly before the tremendous fall/winter meltdown
in the Indices.
Gold and especially silver appear ready to challenge their 52 week highs. |
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Sunday 7/20/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were down slightly on the week. Support
is at 1675 on the Nasdaq with resistance at 1776. For the SP500 we
still look for support at 965 which had been long term resistance until
7 weeks ago. I think the index to watch is the SP500. We would
become bearish on the averages if the SP500 closed below 965. Even if the
Nasdaq fell below 1675 as long as the SP500 holds above 965 we would recommend
staying long.
Gold is still within it's recent trading range within a larger bullish
trend. |
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Sunday 7/13/03
The Nasdaq broke out of it's 1 month trading range last week.
Support is now at 1675 on the Nasdaq with resistance at 1758. For the SP500
we still look for support at 965 which had been long term resistance until
6 weeks ago. I think the index to watch now is the SP500. We
would become bearish on the averages if the SP500 closed below 965. Even
if the Nasdaq fell below 1675 as long as the SP500 holds above 965 we would
recommend staying long.
Gold is still within it's recent trading range within a larger bullish
trend. |
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Sunday 7/06/03
The Nasdaq has been in a trading range for 1 month now. Support
is 1585 on the Nasdaq with resistance at 1685. For the SP500 we will look
for support at 965 which had been long term resistance until 1 month ago.
The Nasdaq is near the top of it's trading range. I am watching for a close
above 1680 and then for follow through to a new 52 week high. Watch support
levels closely. We do not want to see a close below these very important
support levels. As long as the market stays above these levels (NASDAQ
1585 and SP500 965) it is in a bullish mode. If the support numbers don't
hold then the uptrend lines from March will be broken.
Gold is still within it's recent trading range within a larger bullish
trend. |
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Sunday 6/29/03
The SP500 and Nasdaq went down last week but not by much. Support
is 1585 on the Nasdaq with resistance at 1685. For the SP500 we will look
for support at 965 which had been long term resistance until recently.
Watch support levels closely. We do not want to see a close below these
now very important support levels. As long as the market stays above these
levels (NASDAQ 1585 and SP500 965) it is in a bullish mode. If the support
numbers don't hold then the uptrend lines from March will be broken. Also
these support numbers have held for a month now so we don't want to see
them break going into the seasonally weak period.
Gold was down on the week but it is still within it's recent trading range. |
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Sunday 6/22/03
Last week the SP500 and Nasdaq basically consolidated their recent gains.
The Nasdaq retested it's June 6th high but was not able to surpass it.
Support is 1585 on the Nasdaq with resistance at 1685. For the SP500 we
will look for support at 965 which had been long term resistance until
recently. Watch support levels closely. We do not want to see a close
below these now very important support levels. As long as the market stays
above these levels (NASDAQ 1585 and SP500 965) it is in a bullish mode.
Gold is still in a consolidation phase within a larger bullish trend. |
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Sunday 6/15/03
The SP500 and Nasdaq were not able to trade higher this past week than
the prior week. Support is 1585 on the Nasdaq with resistance
at 1685. For the SP500 we will look for support at 965 which had been long
term resistance until recently. If the rally is to continue we need
a close above 1000 on the SP500. Watch support levels closely especially
after Friday's poor performance. We do not want to see a close below these
now very important support levels.(NASDAQ 1585 and SP500 965)
Gold is still in a consolidation phase within a larger bullish trend. |
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Sunday 6/08/03
The SP500 closed the week above long term resistance at 965. You
can see resistance drawn on our SP500
Index chart page. The SP500 has short term support at 965 then 945.
Short term support is 1585 on the Nasdaq with resistance at 1685. I would
like to see the DJIA close above 9129 which is the August 22nd 2002 high.
This is the one major indice that has not closed above significant resistance.
If the market closes down on Monday after Friday's large gap up and negative
close I would suspect the rally may be over.
Gold was up slightly on the week and looks like it may take out it's 52
week highs in the near future. I suspect this because gold has rallied
in the face of a strong stock market not to mention gold's long term bullish
trend. |
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Sunday 6/01/03
The Nasdaq broke above 1550 resistance last week. The SP500 closed
the week just below long term resistance at 965. Watch for a close above
965 this week. You can see resistance drawn on our SP500
Index chart page. The SP500 has short term support at 945.
Short term support is 1550 on the Nasdaq. If the SP500 breaks through resistance
I would look to the DJIA and the NYSE to confirm the breakout. I would
want to see both those Indices break out of their 11 month trading ranges.
If they don't I would suspect a false SP500 breakout.
Gold was flat on the week and still looks like it will make a run at 52
week highs. |
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Sunday 5/25/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 had their first down week in six. The entire
market will likely have trouble moving up further unless the SP500 can
break through 965. You can see resistance drawn on our SP500
Index chart page. The SP500 has near term support at 920. A close
above near term resistance at 1550 would be bullish for the Nasdaq. Watch
for a close below 1489 on the Nasdaq. Last week the Nasdaq traded below
support at 1485 but didn't close below it so watch it closely since we
are entering the seasonally weak period after very low vix readings along
with very high bullish sentiment readings.
Gold looks about to make a run a recent highs. |
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Sunday 5/18/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were up a bit on the week. The Nasdaq will likely
have trouble moving up further unless the SP500 can break through 965.
You can see resistance drawn on our recently updated
SP500
Index chart page. The SP500 has near term support at 935 then at 920.
If 920 doesn't hold suspect a change in the trend. A close above near term
resistance at 1550 would be bullish for the Nasdaq. Support is at 1525
then more significantly at 1485. Support levels should be watched carefully
especially after such low vix readings last week along with high bullish
sentiment readings. Watch for a Vix close above 23 for an early clue on
market direction.
Gold closed up on the week at around $355. |
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Sunday 5/11/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 were basically flat on the week. Small cap stocks
outperformed large cap stocks. The Nasdaq closed right at resistance at
1521 which was the high in late November 2002. Watch last week's
lows at 1485 for support. I would reduce long positions if 1485 doesn't
hold especially after such low vix readings recently. For the SP500
there are 3 points of significant resistance in the mid 900 range (935,
954, 965) where prior rallies failed. You can see resistance drawn
on our recently updated
SP500
Index chart page. On Friday the SP500 closed right below the first
level of resistance at 935. Getting past these 3 points of resistance would
be very significant for the market in general. The SP500 has been range
bound for 9 months. Breaking through resistance at 965 will likely prove
to be very difficult in the near term.
Gold is quietly creeping back up closing at $350. |
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Sunday 5/04/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 had a great week. For the year the Nasdaq is up 12.5%
while the SP500 is up only 5.7% The Nasdaq has significant resistance at
1521 which was the high in late November 2002. For the SP500 there are
3 points of significant resistance in the mid 900 range (935, 954, 965)
where prior rallies failed. You can see resistance drawn on our newly updated
SP500
Index chart page.On Friday the SP500 closed right below the first level
of resistance at 935. Getting past these 3 points of resistance would
be very significant for the market in general. The SP500 has been range
bound for 9 months. Breaking through resistance at 965 will likely prove
to be very difficult in the near term.
Gold rose to $341 and oil remained relatively flat. |
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Sunday 4/27/03
The Nasdaq and SP500 basically finished the week where they began. However
the markets ended the week on a rather negative note. And this after some
low readings on the vix index, as low as 23. The Nasdaq made it up to resistance
at 1470 then backed off. Resistance is at 1470 then 1521. Support is at
the 50 and 200 day moving averages (1365 and 1340). The SP500 also
has support at it's 50 and 200 moving averages (860 and 880). For
the SP500 there are 3 points of significant resistance in the mid 900 range
(935, 954, 965) You can see them drawn on our SP500
Index chart page.
Gold creeped up a bit to $334 and oil dropped to $26. |
Sunday 4/20/03
The
SP500 closed the week above it's 200 moving average. That was the first
time in a year. However next resistance is right overhead at 900. After
that there is significant resistance between 935 and 965. Near term support
is at 840. The Nasdaq closed right below resistance at 1430 where two prior
rallies in March and early April failed. I would like to see a close above
1425. After that, next resistance is at 1470, then 1521. Support is at
the 50 day moving average at 1350 and then at the 200 day moving average
at 1335. The 50 moving average has now crossed clearly above the 200 day
moving average which is a bullish technical occurrence. And it is also
the first time in over a year that this has happened.
Gold was flat on the week and oil is about $30. |
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Sunday 4/13/03
The
200 day moving average still acts as support for the Nasdaq. We need to
stay above it to remain bullish in the short term. Watch out for a close
below 1335. Since the 50 day moving average is at 1340 a close below 1335
would be below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Resistance stands at
1430. For the SP500 resistance stands at 883 where the 200 moving average
resides. Watch for a close above it. Short term support is at 840.
Gold and oil were basically flat on the week. |
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Sunday 4/06/03
Short
term support for the Nasdaq is at it's 200 day moving average. Watch out
for a close below 1340. The 200 day moving average was tested early last
week and should hold if the market is to move higher in the near term.
Resistance is at 1425, 1470 then 1521. The SP500 is trading right below
it's 200 day moving average which is acting as resistance. If it can break
it and hold above, it would be the first time in over a year. Near
term support is at 840.
Gold closed right below support at $330 which is bearish. |
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Sunday 03/30/03
The
Nasdaq and SP500 closed down for the week. Short term support for
the Nasdaq is at 1368, though there should be more support at the 200 day
moving average. A close below 1340 would be bearish. Resistance lies
at the current rally's highs. A close above 1425 would be a continuation
of the rally. For the SP500 near term support is at 857. Resistance is
at 896.
Gold consolidated around the long term breakout point at $330, which is
now acting as support. Oil bounced a little bit but it was rather
insignificant considering the big drop recently. |
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Sunday 03/23/03
The
Nasdaq and SP500 closed above their respective 200 day moving averages.
Looking forward we look toward next resistance. For the SP500 there are
3 points of significant resistance in the mid 900 range (935, 954, 965)
You can see them drawn on our SP500
Index chart page. For the Nasdaq we look back to the January high at
1470 for next resistance. There is even stronger resistance at the December
highs at 1521. Short term support for the Nasdaq is at 1370. For the SP500
near term support is at 857.
Gold was down about 3% for the week and oil had a huge drop. |
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Sunday 03/16/03
The
Nasdaq and SP500 closed up for the week. On Wednesday the indices
put in a reversal day by trading lower but than closing higher than on
Tuesday. The Nasdaq is at the February highs and has further resistance
at 1345 and 1350 which mark the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support
still remains at 1260. Sp500 long term support is at 768. Significant resistance
lies in the 860-870 range. Support and resistance hasn't changed
that much over the last 2 months because the market has been in a trading
range. I am looking for an upside breakout in the Nasdaq with a close above
1350.
Gold has pulled almost all the way back to it's long term breakout point
at $330 which is likely a good long-term buying opportunity. Oil prices
pulled back a little bit. |
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Sunday 03/09/03
The
Nasdaq and SP500 were down slightly for the week. Resistance
for the Nasdaq is at it's 50 day moving average at 1350. More resistance
is at the 200 day moving average at 1362. Support lies at the February
lows at 1260. The SP500 has long term support at 768. Significant
resistance lies in the 865-870 range. For the year the Nasdaq is
down approximately 2%, the SP500 down 6%, and the Dow is down 7%. As the
Nasdaq is outperforming I would watch it as a leading indicator. I would
add to long positions on a close above 1350.
Gold has been consolidating around the $350 level and oil remains in the
upper 30's. |
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Sunday 03/02/03
The
Nasdaq and SP500 were basically unchanged for the week, each being down
less than 1%. The 50 day moving average at 1355 and the 200 day moving
average at 1370 are the numbers to watch on the Nasdaq. For the SP500 watch
873 which is it's 50 day moving average. Support for the Nasdaq is
at 1260 and for the SP500 support is at 806. Technology outperformed for
the week and more importantly has outperformed for the year.
Gold prices were basically flat on the week. Oil prices remain at their
highs. These high prices must resolve to the downside for the long term
health of the economy and of the markets. All market sectors are hurt by
high oil prices contrary to what you frequently hear on financial television. |
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Sunday 02/23/03
The
Nasdaq and SP500 climbed higher last week after putting in a weekly reversal
as I mentioned in last week's commentary. The Nasdaq now faces resistance
at 1360 which is the 50 day moving average. Right after that at 1380 lies
the 200 day moving average. The SP500 faces resistance at 870 and then
at 880 where the 200 day moving average is. Near term support is 1315-1320
for the Nasdaq and at 830 for the SP500. Be wary of a move below these
numbers next week as it would likely indicate the failure of the current
rally.
Gold consolidated around the 350 mark and oil prices are still sitting
near their highs. |
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Sunday 02/16/03
The
Nasdaq and Sp500 each closed higher on friday than they did the previous
friday. During the past week they also traded lower than the week before.
This can be seen as a reversal on a weekly chart. So at least in the short
term the path of least resistance is likely to be up. I would like
to see the Nasdaq move through resistance at 1320 to confirm this reversal
so follow through on Tuesday (markets closed Monday) will be important.
Significant resistance lies at 870 for the SP500. After that the respective
50 day moving averages for the Nasdaq and SP500 will be next significant
points of resistance.
Gold had it's first significant sell off in a quite a while and oil prices
climbed higher. |
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